Canada: StatCan’s barley crop forecast challenged by other analysts

StatCan has issued its satellite imagery crop estimate of barley: 7.825 mln acres planted, 7.485 mln acres harvested, production 7.836 vs. 10.740 mln tonnes last year. The figure was higher than average guesses and was considered bearish, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported earlier in September.

Complaints came in quickly. StatCan’s abandoned acres of 9% are too low, ought to be 15%, which reduces the crop by half a mln tonnes. Others analysts estimate lower yields per acre and arrive at a production of 6.5 – 6.6 mln tonnes.

Now the problem, especially for malting barley, is the continuous rainfall. Farmers have not been in the fields since almost two weeks, the barley is (over)mature, and only 50% have been harvested in Western Canada.

Reports are that several cargoes of new crop barley sold to China have been cancelled. Maltsters and shippers are bidding in vain at C$420-450 per tonne in the country, farmers abstain from markets. Feed lots in southern Alberta purchase much U.S. corn at cheaper price levels than domestic feed barley.

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